Project Proposal

Examining Wildfire Hazard Potential in the western United States with GIS

Lexie Lill

Siena College School of Science

Loudonville, NY 12211

September 24, 2018

Introduction

A wildfire is a large unplanned fire that takes place in a rural and vegetated area. Wildfires have the ability to destroy homes and kill humans and animals. They are usually started accidentally by humans or by a lightning strike that reaches the ground. During time spans of little precipitation, increased temperatures, and increased winds, the risk of a potential wildfire in an area increases dramatically.

The western United States tends to have an increased number of wildfires each year in comparison to other regions. Along with having an increased number of wildfires, the western United States is home to many National Parks. These National Parks are constantly being threatened by the potential risk of a wildfire. Inside of these National Parks contain very unique ecosystems with rare species of animals, insects, and plants that should be spared of possible danger.

A GIS model will be created in order to predict the wildfire hazard potential surrounding National Parks in the western United States. This wildfire hazard potential will be based on annual average precipitation totals, average monthly temperatures, and annual average winds. The model will be able to provide insight into why National Parks in the western United States experience a greater potential risk of wildfires.

Objectives

This project will discover if a GIS model based on environmental factors at National Parks in the western United States can be used to determine the wildfire hazard potential surrounding the parks. The specific objectives include:

·         Compare wildfire hazard potential to annual average precipitation totals

·         Compare wildfire hazard potential to annual average winds

·         Compare wildfire hazard potential to average monthly temperatures

·         Developing a model to predict wildfire hazard potential inside and surrounding National Parks in the western United States

Methodology

This GIS analysis will use correlation methods in order to determine the relationship between the National Parks in the western United States and wildfire hazard potential. A model will be created to determine this based on annual average winds, average monthly temperatures and annual average precipitation totals. The end product will provide a map including the predicted wildfire hazard potential based on these environmental conditions for each National Park in the western United States.

Deliverables

The final map will display wildfire hazard potential surrounding National Parks in the western United States. This map will show the average annual precipitation, the average annual winds, and the average monthly temperature. The combination of these three variables will be able to calculate the wildfire hazard potential surrounding and inside a certain National Park because these are the top three variables that contribute to wildfires in the western United States. This will be able to provide insight to travelers on the potential wildfire hazard potential at a specific National Park.

Data Sources

Data.gov National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Percent Tree Canopy Collection (2015) [shapefile] U.S. Geological Survey, custserv@usgs.gov. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/national-land-cover-database-nlcd-percent-tree-canopy-collection

Western Wind Data Set (2007) [shapefile] National Renewable Energy Laboratory https://www.nrel.gov/grid/western-wind-data.html

Annual Average Precipitation (PRISM Model) (2018) [shapefile] Spatial Climate Analysis Service. oregon@coas.oregonstate.edu. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/average-annual-precipitation-prism-model-1961-1990

North America Climate – Monthly Mean Temperature (2011) [shapefile] USGS, sciencebase@usgs.gov. https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/4fb5528ee4b04cb937751d9e

National Park Boundaries (2009) [shapefile] The Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico, roger_m_johnson@nps.gov. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/national-park-boundariesf0a4c

Work Plan

Week 6 – Download and compile data from sources

Week 7 – Import data into ArcMap, making sure it is unzipped

Week 8 – Query/clip all data sources so only the western United States is displayed

Week 9 – Perform regression analysis between variables. This will be able to prove wildfire hazard potential

Week 10 – Analyze results from regression analysis to determine correlations between variables

Week 11 – Finalize maps

Week 12 – Begin to create project poster for maps

Week 13 – Finalize poster

Week 14 – Put finishing touches onto maps and posters and turn it in

Sources:

https://www.ready.gov/wildfires